{"id":1686,"date":"2024-09-24T15:21:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-24T12:21:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/?p=1686"},"modified":"2025-11-20T12:38:44","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T09:38:44","slug":"the-current-year-2024-has-broken-the-heat-records-of-the-previous-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/2024\/09\/24\/the-current-year-2024-has-broken-the-heat-records-of-the-previous-year\/","title":{"rendered":"The current year 2024 has broken the heat records of the previous year"},"content":{"rendered":"

NASA considers the summer of 2024 to be the hottest to date. July 22, 2024, was the hottest day on record, according to a NASA analysis of global daily temperature data. July 21 and 23 of this year also exceeded the previous daily record, set in July 2023. These record temperatures are part of a long-term warming trend caused by human activity, primarily greenhouse gas emissions. Crimea recorded its hottest day on record.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

August 2024 set a new monthly temperature record, ending Earth’s hottest summer since global records began in 1880, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0<\/span>The announcement comes as new analysis validates the agency’s nearly 145-year-old temperature record.<\/span><\/p>\n

June, July, and August 2024 were collectively about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (about 0.1 degrees Celsius) warmer globally than any other summer in NASA’s record \u2014 slightly surpassing the record set in 2023. Summer 2024 was 2.25 F (1.25 C) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980, and August was 2.34 F (1.3 C) warmer than average. June through August are considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cData from multiple recorders show that the warming of the last two years may be neck and neck, but it is much higher than anything seen in previous years, including strong El Ni\u00f1o years,\u201d said Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS. \u201cThis is a clear sign of ongoing human-induced warming of the climate.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

NASA compiles its temperature records, known as the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), from surface air temperature data from tens of thousands of weather stations, as well as sea surface temperatures from instruments on ships and buoys. It also includes measurements from Antarctica. The analytical methods take into account the varying distances between temperature stations around the world and the effects of urban heating, which can skew the calculations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The GISTEMP analysis calculates temperature anomalies rather than absolute temperatures. A temperature anomaly shows how much the temperature has deviated from the baseline 1951\u20131980 average.<\/span><\/p>\n

The summer record comes as a result of a new study by scientists from the Colorado School of Mines, the National Science Foundation, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) and NASA, further increasing confidence in the agency’s global and regional temperature data.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Our goal was to actually quantify how accurate our temperature estimates are for any given time or location,” said lead author Nathan Lenssen, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines and a research scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).<\/span><\/p>\n

The researchers confirmed that GISTEMP correctly records the rise in our planet’s surface temperature and that the global increase in Earth’s temperature since the late 19th century (the summer of 2024 was about 2.7 F (1.51 C) warmer than in the late 1800s) cannot be explained by any uncertainty or error in the data.<\/span><\/p>\n

The authors built on previous work showing that NASA\u2019s estimate of the global average temperature rise is likely accurate to within a tenth of a degree Fahrenheit over recent decades. For their latest analysis, Lenssen and colleagues looked at data for individual regions and for every month since 1880.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
\nThis histogram shows GISTEMP global summer temperature anomalies in 2023 (shown in yellow) and 2024 (shown in red). June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The white lines indicate the range of estimated temperatures. The warmer-than-normal summers continue a long-term warming trend driven largely by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. NASA\/Peter Jacobs<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Lenssen and colleagues provided a rigorous accounting of statistical uncertainty in the GISTEMP record. Uncertainty in science is important to understand because we can\u2019t measure everything. Knowing the strengths and weaknesses of observations helps scientists assess whether they are truly seeing a shift or change in the world.<\/span><\/p>\n

The study confirmed that one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in the GISTEMP record is localized changes around weather stations. For example, a previously rural station may report higher temperatures as asphalt and other heat-trapping urban surfaces develop around it. Spatial gaps between stations also introduce some uncertainty into the record. GISTEMP accounts for these gaps by using estimates from nearby stations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Previously, scientists using GISTEMP estimated historical temperatures using what\u2019s known in statistics as a confidence interval \u2014 a range of values \u200b\u200baround a measurement, often read as a specific temperature plus or minus a few fractions of a degree. The new approach uses a technique known as a statistical ensemble: a spread of the 200 most likely values. While a confidence interval represents a level of confidence around a single data point, an ensemble attempts to cover the full range of possibilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

The difference between the two methods matters to scientists tracking how temperatures have changed, especially where there are spatial discontinuities. For example: Say GISTEMP contains thermometer readings from Denver in July 1900, and a researcher needs to estimate what conditions were like 100 miles away. Instead of reporting the temperature in Denver to a few degrees, the researcher can analyze dozens of equally likely readings for southern Colorado and report the uncertainty in their results.<\/span><\/p>\n

Every year, NASA scientists use GISTEMP to provide global temperature updates, with 2023 considered the hottest year to date.<\/span><\/p>\n

Other researchers have confirmed the finding, including NOAA and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. These institutions use different, independent methods to estimate Earth’s temperature. Copernicus, for example, uses an advanced computer approach known as reanalysis.<\/span><\/p>\n

The records remain generally consistent, but can differ in some specific results. For example, Copernicus found that July 2023 was the hottest month on record on Earth, while NASA found that July 2024 had a narrow edge. A new ensemble analysis has now found that the difference between the two months is smaller than the uncertainties in the data. In other words, they are actually tied for the hottest months. Within the larger historical record, the new ensemble estimates for the summer of 2024 were likely 2.52 to 2.86 degrees Fahrenheit (1.40 to 1.59 degrees Celsius) warmer than the late 19th century, while 2023 was likely 2.34 to 2.68 degrees Fahrenheit (1.30 to 1.49 degrees Celsius) warmer.<\/span><\/p>\n

July 22, 2024, was the hottest day on record, according to a NASA analysis of global daily temperature data<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span> July 21 and 23 of this year also exceeded the previous daily record, set in July 2023. This preliminary finding comes from an analysis of data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and the Goddard Earth Observing System Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) systems, which combine millions of global observations from instruments on land, sea, air, and satellites using atmospheric models. GEOS-FP provides fast, near-real-time weather data, while the MERRA-2 climate reanalysis takes longer but uses the best quality observations. The models are managed by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Daily global average temperatures from MERRA-2 for 1980\u20132022 are shown in white, with values \u200b\u200bfor 2023 shown in pink and values \u200b\u200bfrom 2024 through June shown in red. Daily global average temperatures from 1\u201323 July 2024 from GEOS-FP are shown in purple. The results are consistent with an independent analysis by the European Union’s Copernicus Earth Observation Programme. Although the analyses have slight differences, they show general agreement on temperature change over time and the hottest days.<\/span><\/p>\n

The latest daily temperature records follow 13 months of consecutive monthly temperature records, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. Their analysis was based on the GISTEMP record, which uses only surface instrumental measurements and provides a long-term view of global temperature changes at monthly and annual resolutions dating back to the late 19th century.<\/span><\/p>\n

The night of September 12 in Moscow was the warmest since the VDNKh base weather station was established in 1948; the air in the capital warmed up to plus 16.6 degrees, which is almost two degrees higher than the previous night minimum of 2017<\/strong><\/span>, leading specialist at the Phobos weather center Evgeny Tishkovets told RIA Novosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

“In Moscow, last night was the warmest for September 12 since the VDNKh base weather station was established (1948). The minimum thermometer showed plus 16.6, which is almost two degrees higher than the previous night minimum in 2017, when it was plus 14.8. Such indicators in September correspond to the nighttime norm for subtropical Sochi,” the weather forecaster said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Crimea recorded record heat on September 11.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0The air in Crimea warmed up to 35.1 degrees, setting a record for the history of observations. The heat in Simferopol broke the temperature record for September 11 in more than 100 years of observations, RIA Novosti was told in the Crimean hydrometeorological center.<\/span><\/p>\n

“The day before, Simferopol exceeded the absolute maximum temperature in the entire history of observations. Weather stations recorded a temperature of 35.1 degrees. This is 3.4 degrees more than the maximum value that was previously set in 2017 – then the record was 31.7 degrees,” the release says.<\/span><\/p>\n

The hydrometeorological center added that of all the regions of Crimea, Simferopol was the hottest. The heat was caused by a warm front coming from the Mediterranean. The summer in Crimea was very hot, with a significant shortage of precipitation. In July and August, several temperature records were noted on the peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NASA considers the summer of 2024 to be the hottest to date. July 22, 2024, was the hottest day on record, according to a NASA analysis of global daily temperature data. July 21 and 23 of this year also exceeded the previous daily record, set in July 2023. These record temperatures are part of a long-term warming trend caused by human activity, primarily greenhouse gas emissions. Crimea recorded its hottest day on record.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1687,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,777],"tags":[802,439,803,291],"class_list":{"0":"post-1686","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-klimat","8":"category-climatechange","9":"tag-crimea","10":"tag-heat","11":"tag-moscow","12":"tag-warming"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1686"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1686\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1688,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1686\/revisions\/1688"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}