{"id":1792,"date":"2024-12-01T11:48:28","date_gmt":"2024-12-01T08:48:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/?p=1792"},"modified":"2025-11-20T12:38:25","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T09:38:25","slug":"redistribution-of-the-earths-water-balance-desertification-of-southern-russia-and-europe-and-filling-of-lakes-in-deserts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/2024\/12\/01\/redistribution-of-the-earths-water-balance-desertification-of-southern-russia-and-europe-and-filling-of-lakes-in-deserts\/","title":{"rendered":"Redistribution of the Earth’s water balance – desertification of southern Russia and Europe and filling of lakes in deserts"},"content":{"rendered":"

The director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warned that precipitation, the source of all fresh water, can no longer be relied upon: the global water cycle has been disrupted for the first time in human history. Russian scientists have warned that deserts are gradually taking over southern Russia. Jim Skea, chairman of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that deserts could appear in southern Europe; climate change has intensified droughts in Europe. Their formation will be caused by global warming. Satellites have taken photographs showing how the sands of the Sahara Desert are filling with water.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Climate change and chronic water mismanagement are putting \u201cunprecedented stress\u201d on the world\u2019s water systems, according to a new report.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0More than half of the world\u2019s food production could collapse within the next 25 years due to a growing global water crisis, the new report warns.<\/span><\/p>\n

Climate change, destructive land use and persistent unsustainable water use mean that nearly 3 billion people and more than half of the world’s food production live in areas under “unprecedented pressure” on their water systems, according to a report by the Global Commission on the Water Economy released on October 17, 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the trend is not reversed, the growing deficit will have a seismic impact on humanity and the environment. Several cities are already drowning due to loss of groundwater. Moreover, according to the report, up to 8% of global gross domestic product (GDP) and 15% of GDP in low-income countries will be lost by 2050.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHalf the world\u2019s population today faces water shortages,\u201d Johan Rockstr\u00f6m, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and one of the four co-chairs of the commission, said in a statement. \u201cAs this vital resource becomes increasingly scarce, food security and human development are at risk \u2013 and we are allowing this to happen.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cFor the first time in human history, we are throwing the global water cycle out of balance,\u201d he continued. \u201cPrecipitation, the source of all fresh water, can no longer be the source due to human-induced climate and land-use change, undermining the basis of human well-being and the global economy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nResidents of the Snjai camp in New Delhi fill plastic containers with water from a tanker truck in June 2026. Parts of the Indian capital face water shortages in the summer due to extreme heat. Pradeep Gaur\/SOPA Images\/LightRocket<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Each person needs a minimum of 13 to 26 gallons (50 to 100 liters) of water per day to maintain health and hygiene, but the commission found that this figure, often relied upon by governments, is greatly underestimated.<\/span><\/p>\n

The real amount for adequate consumption and a decent life is closer to 1,055 gallons (4,000 liters) per person per day, the report’s authors write. This amount is unattainable in many parts of the world, putting additional pressure on trade to provide adequate food, clothing and consumer goods.<\/span><\/p>\n

Current approaches to the water crisis focus overwhelmingly on \u201cblue water\u201d found in rivers, lakes, and aquifers, ignoring the vital \u201cgreen water\u201d found in soil and plants. This water circulates around the world in atmospheric rivers, generating about half of the precipitation that falls on land.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parts of India, China, Russia and Europe rely heavily on green water flow, putting them at increasing risk of water shortages as weather systems break down. In recent years, the Amazon has suffered severe droughts that threaten to turn rainforest into savannah, glaciers are melting at an unprecedented rate and Europe has been hit by deadly floods. A previous study also highlighted the dangers in North America, where nearly half of the United States\u2019 204 freshwater basins are projected to be unable to meet demand by 2071.<\/span><\/p>\n

Compounding the problem is widespread undervaluation of water in many areas, allowing water in already stressed regions to be diverted to rapidly expanding data centers and coal-fired power plants. Researchers argue that by implementing proper pricing and subsidies, switching to plant-based diets, restoring natural habitats, and recycling wastewater, water can be distributed more efficiently and fairly.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe global water crisis is a tragedy, but it is also an opportunity to transform the economics of water and start by properly valuing water, recognizing its scarcity and the many benefits it provides,\u201d World Trade Organization Director-General and commission co-chair Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in a statement.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Global Commission on the Water Economy was launched in the Netherlands in 2022. It drew on the expertise of dozens of scientists and economists to produce a 202-page report assessing all aspects of the current crisis and offering solutions for policymakers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russian scientists have warned that deserts are gradually taking over the South of Russia.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Scientists from SFedU have identified negative changes in the nature of the South of Russia over the past 60 years. According to their data, due to global warming, the bioclimatic zones of deserts and semi-deserts are expanding at a rate of 550 km2 per year and are taking over new territories in the Astrakhan and Volgograd regions, the republics of Kalmykia and Dagestan. The results were published in the scientific journal International Journal of Biometeorology. The study was conducted under the Priority 2030 program (the national project Science and Universities) as part of the SFedU strategic project Soil Resource Management Systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

The climate conditions of the South of Russia are extremely heterogeneous, but due to warming, aridity has increased in most of the territory over the past 60 years. Scientists from the Southern Federal University (SFedU) studied weather station data and, using geoinformation technologies and statistical analysis methods, determined the speed and scale of climate change in the South of Russia from 1961 to 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

The results of the study have significantly expanded our understanding of changing climate conditions in the South of Russia, noted Vasily Gudko, senior researcher at the SFedU Intelligent Agroecosystems research laboratory.<\/span><\/p>\n

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“We found that from 1961 to 2020, there was a significant increase in temperature in the region. According to our calculations, the average annual air temperature at all weather stations increased at an average rate of 0.31 \u2103 per decade. This is a significant increase. As for the amount of annual precipitation, there were no significant changes over the same period,” he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

SFedU researchers also found out that due to warming of the territories of bioclimatic zones, deserts and semi-deserts from 2010 to 2020 have noticeably expanded from east to west and covered almost the entire territory of the Astrakhan region, most of Kalmykia, as well as certain areas of the Volgograd region and Dagestan.<\/span><\/p>\n

“The expansion rate averaged about 5.5 thousand km2 per decade or 550 km2 per year with a total area of \u200b\u200bthe study region of 591 thousand km2. In addition, we calculated how the area of \u200b\u200bthe semi-desert and desert zones changes depending on the change in average annual air temperature,” noted Vasily Gudko.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to scientists, the results of the study will help reduce the risks of socio-economic and environmental problems associated with desertification and develop approaches to the rational use of water and land resources.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDesertification is a large and complex problem, and we hope that our research will be a step towards solving it,\u201d Gudko emphasized.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such a comprehensive analysis, which included the study of trends in climate variables, shifts in bioclimatic zones of humidification, and the dependence of the areas of various bioclimatic zones on fluctuations in climate indicators, was conducted for the first time in the South of Russia, the researchers reported. In the future, they plan to study possible shifts in humidification zones depending on various climate scenarios.<\/span><\/p>\n

Deserts may appear in Southern Europe.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Their formation will be caused by global warming. This was reported by The Daily Telegraph, citing Jim Skea, Chairman of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.<\/span><\/p>\n

“All of Europe is vulnerable, especially the Mediterranean. We are already seeing desertification not only in North Africa, but also on the southern fringes of Europe, such as Greece, Portugal and Turkey,” he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

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According to the expert, global warming can change the climate of many countries to humid and hot. This will complicate the conduct of various types of economic activity. Jim Ski is sure that by 2100 the temperature in the region will increase by 3 degrees Celsius.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also emphasized that humanity has already missed its chance to contain cataclysms and now the population of the Earth will need to make unprecedented efforts to contain the rate of global warming.<\/span><\/p>\n

Climate change has increased droughts in Europe.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0European climatologists have found that the scale and severity of the severe summer drought of 2022 in Europe have been increased by about a third as a result of the long-term effect of global warming on soil moisture, the volume of water carried by rivers and other climate parameters. According to TASS, the scientists’ findings were published in an article in the scientific journal Nature Geoscience.<\/span><\/p>\n

Europe faced massive socioeconomic disruption in the summer of 2022 as a result of an unusually severe and prolonged drought. Researchers found that central and southern Europe experienced the largest overall water deficit on record at the time. Although low precipitation was the main cause, global warming exacerbated the crisis by about 30%.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is the conclusion reached by a group of European climatologists from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Germany) while studying the factors that influenced the occurrence of a severe drought in the south and central regions of Europe in the summer of 2022. At this time, as scientists note, the water level in many European rivers, as well as soil moisture, fell to record lows in the entire history of observations.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Scientists were interested in how much of this extreme weather event was driven by short-term weather factors, such as abnormally low rainfall over several weeks, and long-term climate processes, including rising temperatures and reduced soil moisture. Guided by these ideas, climate scientists compared satellite observations of soils and rivers across Europe during the drought with predictions from climate models.<\/span><\/p>\n

The comparison showed that the total water deficit in all European rivers and soils in the summer of 2022 was a record 280 cubic kilometers, equivalent to 128 million Olympic swimming pools. Around a third of this was lost, the researchers found, as a result of several long-term climate trends affecting water levels in European rivers and the amount of water in the ground.<\/span><\/p>\n

As scientists note, anomalies in precipitation and soil moisture levels were recorded in different regions of Europe for several years before the drought began, including during the droughts of 2018\u20132020, from the effects of which many regions of Europe had not fully recovered by the end of 2021. These long-term trends further exacerbated the record-breaking drought of 2022, which highlights the important role of global warming in the development of such cataclysms, the climatologists concluded.<\/span><\/p>\n

Transformation of the Sahara: Desert sands fill with water.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0<\/span>The periodic filling of lakes in the Sahara Desert, such as Lake Sebha el-Mela in 2024, illustrates its more comfortable past and helps researchers study historical climate change. These insights into the climate history of the Sahara highlight the difficulty of predicting its future in the face of global warming.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is known that between 11,000 and 5,000 years ago, during the African Humid Period, the Sahara Desert was much wetter and greener than it is today. Geological and archaeological evidence suggests that areas that are now vast sand dunes were once covered with vegetation, wetlands, and perhaps even large lakes.<\/span><\/p>\n

In September 2024, hints of this ancient, greener Sahara briefly reappeared after an extratropical cyclone brought heavy rainfall to North Africa. Heavy rainfall partially filled several normally dry, short-lived lakes in the desert.<\/span><\/p>\n

NASA’s Landsat 9 satellite captured this image of one such lake, Sebha el-Melah in Algeria, on Sept. 29, 2024, using its Operational Land Imager-2 (OLI-2) instrument. Situated along the Ougart mountain range and fed by a wadi, a river that only appears when it rains, the Oued Saoura, the lake began filling in mid-September. A previous image from Aug. 12 shows the lake bed covered in salt before rains transformed the landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n

As of October 16, water covered 191 square kilometers with a depth of up to 2.2 meters, and Lake Sebha el-Mela was about a third full.<\/span><\/p>\n

The lake filling in the Sahara Desert is a rare, largely undocumented, temporary phenomenon. There are few ground-based weather stations in this part of Algeria, so the researchers used precipitation data from space satellites.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of the hundreds of rainfall events that have affected the Sebha el-Melah watershed since 2000, only six have produced enough water to begin filling it. All have been accompanied by long-lasting extratropical cyclones that produce particularly heavy rainfall as moist tropical air rises and over the mountains, a process called orographic lift.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nSahara Lake-1Satellite image of Sebkha el Melah in Algeria captured on August 12, 2024, by Landsat 9’s OLI-2<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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Satellite observations show that when Sebha el-Melah fills, water can linger. After the lake filled in 2008, it didn’t dry up completely until 2012.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scientists track lake-filling episodes in part because questions remain about both the region\u2019s climate past and future. Despite evidence that the Sahara was wetter during the African Humid Period, just how wet it was remains a matter of scientific debate. To help resolve the issue, scientists have turned to desert lakes like Sebha el-Melah because they act as giant \u201crain gauges\u201d that provide insight into past rainfall patterns.<\/span><\/p>\n

One problem for researchers studying the topic is that programs that model past climates have a hard time reproducing the amount of rainfall needed to fill the number of Saharan lakes that geologists believe were present during Africa\u2019s wet period. This has led some researchers to speculate that either the Sahara wasn\u2019t as wet and green as paleoclimate experts think, or that the models are missing something.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, there is a third possibility \u2013 extreme rainfall events like the one in the northwestern Sahara in September may have been more frequent in the past. Given how long it takes for lakes to dry out, these events could have been frequent enough that the lakes remained partially filled for long periods \u2013 years or decades \u2013 without frequent rainfall.<\/span><\/p>\n

Projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that while some parts of the Sahara could see more rainfall as global temperatures rise, other parts could see less. But there is more uncertainty in these projections than predicted change, the authors say. How the Sahara’s climate will change remains unclear, but by studying these lake-filling events, the researchers hope to better understand the Sahara’s future.<\/span><\/p>\n

The greening of the Sahara will change the climate of the Northern Hemisphere.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0An international team of scientists has conducted numerical climate modeling to analyze the impact of the vast Sahara on atmospheric circulation. It is known that during the Holocene, approximately 11,000 to 5,000 years ago, during the African humid period, the desert was much wetter and greener than it is today. Geological and archaeological evidence also suggests that areas that are now vast sand dunes were covered with vegetation; moreover, wetlands flourished there and, perhaps, there were even lakes. But the impact of the \u201cgreen\u201d Sahara on the planet\u2019s climate has never been considered before. Scientists from European countries with colleagues from Canada have studied this issue, reports the journal Climate of the Past.<\/span><\/p>\n

Their computer modeling showed that the Sahara greening has a year-round effect on key circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the summer when the African monsoon develops. These findings are interesting in the context of current warming, which could lead to renewed Sahara greening.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Holocene climate period was a time when the desert turned green. However, it was still unclear how much this affected the planet, synoptic processes, and atmospheric circulation in general. Scientists, having decided to study the topic, modeled the Earth’s climate in that era in two versions: with vegetation in the Sahara and without it. As calculations showed, due to the desert being covered with greenery, average temperatures increased from the northern subtropics to the Arctic itself, and especially in the Arctic. The same was true for precipitation. In particular, Central Europe became warmer with the green Sahara, while a cooler summer was predicted in Asia, but a warm winter with abundant precipitation. According to scientists, all these weather anomalies occurred due to the westward shift of atmospheric currents.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Sahara without vegetation often produces sandstorms, which are a scourge for the surrounding regions and even for Europe and North America. The dust from the storms rises high enough to block some of the sun’s energy, and, accordingly, the regions in the storm’s path noticeably cool down.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warned that precipitation, the source of all fresh water, can no longer be relied upon: the global water cycle has been disrupted for the first time in human history. Russian scientists have warned that deserts are gradually taking over southern Russia. Jim Skea, chairman of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that deserts could appear in southern Europe; climate change has intensified droughts in Europe. Their formation will be caused by global warming. Satellites have taken photographs showing how the sands of the Sahara Desert are filling with water.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1793,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,23,777,539],"tags":[849,613,391,785,291],"class_list":{"0":"post-1792","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"category-klimat","9":"category-climatechange","10":"category-hydrosphere","11":"tag-desertification","12":"tag-europe","13":"tag-russia","14":"tag-sahara","15":"tag-warming"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1792"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1792\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1794,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1792\/revisions\/1794"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}