{"id":2336,"date":"2026-09-25T04:28:23","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T01:28:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/?p=2336"},"modified":"2026-09-25T04:54:30","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T01:54:30","slug":"researchers-are-looking-for-a-ceiling-on-the-impact-of-solar-storms-on-earth-and-so-far-they-havent-found-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/2026\/09\/25\/researchers-are-looking-for-a-ceiling-on-the-impact-of-solar-storms-on-earth-and-so-far-they-havent-found-one\/","title":{"rendered":"Researchers are looking for a ceiling on the impact of solar storms on Earth. And so far they haven’t found one"},"content":{"rendered":"

Even “moderately intense” geomagnetic storms, disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field caused by charged particles and the Sun’s magnetic energy, can carry much more energy than previously thought, challenging scientists’ understanding of how these space weather events develop and how their strength is measured.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The power of solar storms and their impact on Earth<\/span><\/h2>\n

The most extreme solar storms to hit Earth could have a greater impact on satellites, power grids and communications than previously thought.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Researchers have found evidence that the apparent upper limit on Earth’s response to the most intense solar storms may be more an artifact of the solar wind measurement method than a true physical limit. If confirmed, these findings suggest that rare geomagnetic storms, occurring once every thousand years, could have a greater impact on modern technology than current estimates suggest.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Our planet’s magnetic field protects us remarkably well from many space weather events, so they often manifest only as disruptions or spectacular auroras,” said Maria Valach, a co-author of the study from Lancaster University. “However, extreme cases do occur.” The study’s findings were published on July 15, 2026, in the journal Nature.<\/span><\/p>\n

Solar storms occur when solar eruptions, such as coronal mass ejections and solar flares, release clouds of charged particles that hurtle toward Earth. While they can produce spectacular auroras, they can also disrupt satellites, GPS, radio communications, and power grids.<\/span><\/p>\n

History has shown the damage even less severe storms can cause. The Carrington Event of 1859, the most powerful geomagnetic storm in history, disrupted telegraph systems worldwide and shifted the auroras from their usual high-latitude regions near the Arctic and Antarctica to locations as far south as the tropics. Another powerful storm in 1989 caused the collapse of the Quebec power grid, leaving millions without power, and the “Halloween Storms” of 2003 disrupted satellites, GPS, and radio communications.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nA close-up of a solar flare on the Sun. NASA\/SDO<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

While the study doesn’t suggest an unprecedented solar storm is inevitable, it does suggest that scientists may need to reconsider how they assess the severity of even the rarest events\u2014a task that is becoming increasingly important as modern society becomes increasingly reliant on satellites and other vulnerable technologies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Researchers have identified an apparent upper limit at the point where most solar wind measurements are collected. Many observations of extreme events come from spacecraft near the Sun-Earth Lagrange point 1 (L1), located approximately 1.5 million kilometers from Earth. Because the strongest solar wind typically weakens somewhat before reaching Earth, comparing measurements at the L1 point with conditions on Earth may create the impression that Earth’s upper atmosphere is becoming unresponsive to the increasing solar wind, even though this is not the case.<\/span><\/p>\n

To test this hypothesis, the team analyzed over a million solar wind measurements collected by NASA spacecraft orbiting much closer to Earth, where the solar wind directly interacts with our planet’s magnetic field. These observations revealed that electric currents flowing through Earth’s upper atmosphere continued to increase alongside the strengthening of the solar wind, with no sign of the previously hypothesized upper limit. The results suggest that exceptionally powerful solar storms may generate stronger geomagnetic disturbances\u2014and have a greater impact on satellites, communications systems, and power grids\u2014than previously predicted.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Fortunately, such extreme events are rare, but that also means we have limited data, and only time will tell what will happen in the event of a once-in-a-thousand-year extreme event,” Walach said in a statement.<\/span><\/p>\n

The study is being conducted as the Sun nears the peak of its roughly 11-year solar cycle, known as solar maximum, when sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections become more frequent. During the current cycle, strong geomagnetic storms have repeatedly sent auroras far beyond their usual polar sky.<\/span><\/p>\n

In May 2024, the strongest geomagnetic storm in more than two decades lit up the skies over much of the United States and Europe, causing intermittent disruptions to high-frequency radio communications, GPS navigation equipment, and some satellite systems. While significant, this event was far less powerful than the Carrington Event\u2014or even the rarer storms that new research suggests may be possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

A rare purple aurora over northern Japan may be a sign that some solar storms are more powerful than scientists previously thought.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Researchers studying faint red auroras observed over Japan in June 2024 found that the phenomena extended much higher into Earth’s atmosphere than expected, reaching altitudes of approximately 310 to 500 miles (500 to 800 kilometers)\u2014unusually high for a storm not considered particularly strong based on conventional geomagnetic indices, according to a statement from Hokkaido University. Their findings were published on May 19, 2026, in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The discovery suggests that even “moderately intense” geomagnetic storms\u2014disturbances of Earth’s magnetic field caused by charged particles and the Sun’s magnetic energy\u2014may carry much more energy than previously thought, challenging scientists’ understanding of how these space weather events develop and how their strength is measured.<\/span><\/p>\n

“I was really surprised because I didn’t expect such high auroral activity even during moderately intense storms,” \u200b\u200bTomohiro M. Nakayama, lead author of the study, said in a statement. “This suggests that these storms may actually be stronger than traditional indices indicate.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The aurora borealis typically appears near the poles as bright, shimmering lights caused by the collision of charged particles from the sun with gases in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. When they appear further south, for example in Japan, they are typically associated with strong geomagnetic storms and occur at lower altitudes, approximately 124 to 249 miles (200 to 400 kilometers).<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nThe low-latitude aurora observed on June 28, 2024, in Yoichi, Hokkaido, Japan, is a rare red glow that stretches across the night sky during a geomagnetic storm that scientists say reached unexpectedly high altitudes in Earth’s upper atmosphere. Tomohiro M. Nakayama<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

An unusual aurora borealis was photographed over Hokkaido, Japan, where observers captured a diffuse red glow hanging low on the horizon. Unlike the vibrant green veils typically associated with the northern lights, this aurora borealis appeared as soft crimson veils spreading across the night sky.<\/span><\/p>\n

This variation in auroras is explained by the fact that different gases\u2014and different altitudes\u2014create different colors. Green auroras, the most common type, form when energetic particles excite oxygen atoms at altitudes of 60 to 150 miles (100 to 250 km) above Earth. Red auroras are also caused by oxygen, but they occur much higher in the atmosphere, where the air is extremely thin and oxygen atoms can emit a dim red glow before colliding with other particles. Blue and violet auroras are usually associated with nitrogen molecules.<\/span><\/p>\n

Red auroras are typically dim and typically occur at very high altitudes, making them less common than green ones. They are also more often associated with particularly strong geomagnetic storms, which can push the auroras further from the poles.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, Japan is located much further south than the regions where auroras are typically observed. Although powerful solar storms can sometimes shift the aurora oval toward lower latitudes, scientists did not expect such extensive red emission at high altitudes during a storm classified as moderate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The team analyzed five auroral displays recorded between June 2024 and March 2025, combining observations from Hokkaido with satellite data and photographs taken by citizen scientists across Japan. By measuring the elevation angles of the auroras in the images and tracing them along Earth’s magnetic field lines, the team reconstructed how high the glowing structures extended into the atmosphere. According to the statement, their analysis suggests that unusually dense solar wind\u2014streams of charged particles emanating from the Sun and interacting with Earth’s magnetic field\u2014could have fueled the rare, crimson auroras even without an officially “extreme” geomagnetic storm.<\/span><\/p>\n

The study was conducted as the Sun was near the peak of Solar Cycle 25, a period of heightened solar activity that has already produced spectacular auroral displays. In May 2024, one of the most powerful geomagnetic storms in decades pushed auroras deep into mid-latitudes around the world. Understanding these unexpected auroras could improve forecasts of hazardous space weather, which can disrupt satellites, GPS systems, communications, and even power grids during extreme solar storms.<\/span><\/p>\n

A powerful solar storm in May 2024 that produced beautiful auroras over much of the world also created two new radiation belts, which were discovered by a satellite returning from oblivion.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In May 2024, a series of powerful solar storms erupted, spewing clouds of charged particles into space and culminating in a spectacular display of the northern and southern auroras\u2014the result of the most powerful geomagnetic storm observed on Earth since March 1989. The discovery of two new radiation belts was published on February 6, 2025, in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.<\/span><\/p>\n

NASA’s Colorado Inner Radiation Belt Experiment (CIRBE) satellite was unable to detect the phenomenon. Designed to study the Van Allen radiation belts on Earth, CIRBE was launched in April 2023 but ceased operation in mid-April 2024 due to a technical malfunction onboard. It resumed operation in June, and when it did, something changed: two entirely new radiation belts had appeared.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nA solar storm in May 2024 created two additional radiation belts located between the two permanent Van Allen belts. One of the new belts, shown in purple, contained a population of protons, giving it a unique composition not previously observed. NASA\/Goddard Space Flight Center\/Kristen Perrin<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The Van Allen radiation belts contain charged particles held in place by Earth’s magnetic field. There are two permanent belts, but the appearance of a new temporary radiation belt between the two permanent belts after a solar storm is not uncommon\u2014such short-lived belts were first discovered in 2013. What CIRBE discovered about these two new belts after the May 2024 event is their composition and lifetime.<\/span><\/p>\n

Typically, temporary belts formed after solar storms are composed of high-energy electrons. One of the new belts discovered by CIRBE matched this pattern. However, the other belt also contained a significant number of high-energy protons (protons are also found in permanent radiation belts). Their presence in the new belt is believed to be a result of the intensity of the solar storms in May 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

Temporary radiation belts typically last no more than four weeks before dissipating, but the new belts discovered by CIRBE had a much longer lifespan: the electron-dominated belt lasted three months after the solar storm, while the proton-dominated belt is believed to still be circling the Earth.<\/span><\/p>\n

“These are high-energy electrons and protons that have penetrated into Earth’s inner magnetic environment,” said David Seebeck of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. “Some of them could remain there for a very long time.”<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nNorthern Lights over the coast of Northern Ireland. Evan Boyce<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

While solar storms can create new radiation belts like this one, they can also destroy them. A moderately powerful storm in June 2024 reduced the size of the electron-dominated belt, and another storm in August 2024 almost completely destroyed it. The proton-rich belt survived because it is located in a more stable region, where its protons are less susceptible to being knocked out of orbit.<\/span><\/p>\n

The existence of these temporary belts containing high-energy charged particles\u2014the energy range for electrons was 1.3 to 5 megaelectronvolts (MeV), and for protons it was even greater, from 6.8 to 20 MeV\u2014could have implications for launching spacecraft through the Van Allen belts to reach geostationary orbit (located at an altitude of 22,236 miles, or 35,785 kilometers) or higher. Charged particles contained in the belts could damage electrical components of satellites and spacecraft and pose an additional radiation hazard to astronauts if they ever return to the Moon or travel to Mars. To ensure maximum launch safety, some future missions, particularly those carrying crewed flights, may need to modify launch plans or employ additional shielding after solar storms.<\/span><\/p>\n

A powerful geomagnetic storm in May 2024 gave scientists an unprecedented opportunity to observe how Earth’s plasma shield collapses and slowly reforms under extreme solar pressure. Using the perfectly positioned Arase satellite, the researchers observed how the plasmasphere shrank to a fraction of its normal size and took days to recover\u2014much longer than expected.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The storm’s effects ranged from breathtaking auroras in low latitudes to disruptions to satellites, GPS and communications.<\/span><\/p>\n

A geomagnetic storm is one of the most powerful forms of space weather, occurring when the Sun bombards Earth with enormous bursts of energy and streams of charged particles. Events of this magnitude are rare, occurring approximately once every 20\u201325 years. On May 10\u201311, 2024, Earth experienced its strongest geomagnetic storm in more than two decades.<\/span><\/p>\n

A research team from the Institute of Space and Near-Earth Environmental Research at Nagoya University collected direct data on this rare event, offering the first clear and detailed look at how a geomagnetic storm compresses Earth’s plasmasphere (the region of charged particles that surrounds the planet). The study, published in the journal Earth, Planets and Space in 2025, reveals how the plasmasphere and ionosphere react during extreme solar activity and provides new information that could improve forecasts of satellite outages, GPS problems, and communication disruptions during severe space weather.<\/span><\/p>\n

The plasmasphere, which interacts with Earth’s magnetic field to protect the planet from harmful charged particles, typically extends tens of thousands of kilometers into space. However, during the geomagnetic storm, its outer edge was displaced from approximately 44,000 km above Earth to just 9,600 km.<\/span><\/p>\n

The storm was triggered by a series of powerful solar flares that ejected billions of tons of charged material toward Earth. In just nine hours, the plasmasphere collapsed to approximately one-fifth its normal size. Its recovery was unusually slow, requiring more than four days to replenish, marking the longest recovery recorded since Arase began monitoring the region in 2017.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scientists found that the storm initially caused intense heating near the poles, but this later led to a significant drop in the concentration of charged particles in the ionosphere, which slowed the recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n

During the most intense phase of the superstorm, extreme solar activity compressed the Earth’s magnetic field, allowing charged particles to travel much further along magnetic field lines toward the equator. This resulted in spectacular auroras at unusually low latitudes.<\/span><\/p>\n

The data obtained give researchers a clearer understanding of how the plasmasphere changes and how energy flows through it. During the geomagnetic storm, several satellites experienced power problems or stopped transmitting data, and GPS signals and radio communications were disrupted. Knowing how long it takes for Earth’s plasma layer to recover from such events is key to predicting space weather and protecting space technologies.<\/span><\/p>\n

In November 2025, radiation levels in Earth’s atmosphere reached their highest in nearly two decades after a rare solar superflare showered the planet with high-speed particles from the Sun. The solar flare, an extremely bright burst of light, erupted from sunspot AR4274 on November 11. Classified as a powerful X5.1 flare, it followed a series of weaker flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that presented skywatchers with mesmerizing auroras, even as far south as the sun.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Besides being the most intense solar flare of 2025 to date, the X-class flare also unleashed a stream of high-speed protons and other energetic particles toward our planet, an extremely rare occurrence. About 20 X-class flares reached Earth in 2025, but only the November 11 flare was accompanied by a stream of high-speed protons. On that day, when ground-based monitors began showing elevated radiation levels, researchers launched several stratospheric balloons with sensors to track changes in atmospheric radiation levels.<\/span><\/p>\n

They found that at the altitudes where most commercial aircraft fly\u2014around 40,000 feet (12 kilometers)\u2014radiation levels briefly rose to levels ten times higher than normal background levels associated with cosmic rays. If a pregnant woman had been exposed to such radiation levels for more than 12 hours, she would have exceeded the limit officially considered safe for the fetus. Fortunately, in this case, the worst was over after about two hours, according to Benjamin Clever, a space weather researcher at the University of Surrey in the UK.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nOn November 11, 2025, a powerful solar flare erupted on the Sun, releasing a stream of supercharged protons, leading to increased radiation levels around Earth for up to two decades. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Coronal mass ejections also release clouds of energetic particles into interplanetary space. These particles, contained in clouds of magnetized plasma, reach the planet within a few days. However, protons released by solar flares travel almost at the speed of light and reach the planet within minutes.<\/span><\/p>\n

When these energetic protons reach the upper layers of Earth’s atmosphere, they interact with air molecules, generating streams of secondary, less energetic particles, including neutrons, muons, and electrons. Such particles are constantly deposited on the Earth’s surface by cosmic rays originating from the farthest reaches of the galaxy. But when a solar proton stream reaches the Earth’s surface, radiation levels at the Earth’s surface and around the planet suddenly and dramatically increase. This phenomenon is called a ground-level event (GLE) and is quite rare. In fact, according to Klever, only 77 such ground-level events have been recorded since measurements began in the 1940s.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scientists don’t understand why some solar flares cause global bursts of light while others don’t, and so they can’t predict when a surge in radiation will occur.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the November 11, 2025, GLE was only a weak example of what the Sun is capable of. The most intense GLE ever recorded occurred in 1956 and was sixty times more intense. Even more powerful events, more than a thousand times more intense than the November 11 GLE, are possible, as evidenced by radioisotope studies of tree rings.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nArtist’s rendering of the ESA lunar base concept.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Not only are emergency laser beams potentially hazardous to human health (besides the risk to unborn children, radiation exposure increases the risk of cancer in everyone), but they can also cause serious damage to aircraft electronics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Just two weeks before the November 11 GLE, a JetBlue Airbus plane flying over Florida suddenly lost altitude, which was later attributed to possible onboard electronics malfunctions caused by high-energy particles from space. Researchers are concerned that a full-scale GLE could lead to widespread failure of onboard electronics, increasing the risk of hazardous situations onboard hundreds, and possibly thousands, of aircraft. The JetBlue incident resulted in several passengers suffering injuries requiring medical attention.<\/span><\/p>\n\n

Researchers advocate equipping all aircraft with radiation monitors to help pilots understand what’s happening. During severe radiation events, radio communication with ground control can also be disrupted, preventing pilots from learning the cause of the problem. Because radiation flares occur suddenly and are unpredictable, many aircraft will find themselves caught in the middle of such events mid-air.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to the European Space Agency, on November 11, 2025, the Sun generated a powerful X-class solar flare, peaking at approximately 10:04 UTC. This was followed less than an hour later by a coronal mass ejection (CME) traveling at a speed initially estimated at approximately 1,500 km\/s. By 18:50 UTC the following day, the CME had reached Earth, triggering a strong geomagnetic storm that peaked for six hours before weakening to moderate levels.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

“In just a few days, one active region of the Sun (active region NOAA 14274) experienced four solar flares and an equal number of coronal mass ejections, three of which were directed toward Earth. The third and most spectacular event occurred on November 11. Interestingly, due to its individual characteristics, it caused a smaller geomagnetic disturbance than expected,” says Juha-Pekka Luntama, Head of ESA’s Space Weather Unit.<\/span><\/p>\n

This sequence ended on November 14, when the active region released its last coronal mass ejection before disappearing from view on the far side of the Sun.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nESA Deep Space Weather Correspondent Vigil<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The most immediate and significant consequence of this event was a severe disruption of radio communications in regions facing the Sun. Following the solar flare, Europe, Africa, and Asia experienced significant radio silence, lasting approximately 30 minutes to an hour.<\/span><\/p>\n

A ground-level solar irradiance enhancement (GLE) was also recorded\u2014a rare event that occurs only once or twice a year. Such events occur when solar particles are energetic enough to penetrate Earth’s magnetic shield, which typically protects us from less intense solar flares. High-energy solar particles can harm astronauts, damage spacecraft, and trigger a cascade of secondary particles in our atmosphere that can cause electronic components to malfunction if they reach Earth. This was only the 77th GLE since record-keeping began in the 1940s.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this, the geomagnetic storm had minimal impact on critical infrastructure. ESA spacecraft are designed to withstand radiation, and none were damaged by the storm. However, the event provided an opportunity for several ESA missions to collect radiation data, which is being analyzed. More importantly, the event did not pose a direct biological threat to humans on Earth.<\/span><\/p>\n

ESA spacecraft in low Earth orbit were present to measure the impact on Earth’s upper atmosphere.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nSolar Orbiter. ESA<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Fourteen hours before the onset of the geomagnetic storm, ESA’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission detected a powerful radio burst, coinciding with the arrival of a solar flare. Its radio antenna, rotating at an altitude of 755 km, receives signals at a frequency of 1.4 gigahertz for Earth observations, but can also detect solar radio waves and their rotational motion. In this case, SMOS data detected left-handed (counterclockwise) polarization, which was not expected to interfere with global navigation satellite systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even closer to Earth, three European Space Agency Swarm satellites detected magnetic fluctuations ten times higher than normal at the onset of the storm. The three satellites’ star trackers, which are typically used to properly orient the satellites, detected a temporary increase in the number of high-energy protons at the poles, leading to the formation of “proton auroras”\u2014a more diffuse phenomenon observed at much lower latitudes during severe storms.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spacecraft outside the Earth’s magnetic field also felt the storm’s effects.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nThe Swarm spacecraft’s star trackers detected a temporary increase in high-energy protons at the poles during successive space weather events on 12 and 13 November 2025. ESA<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

At the first Lagrange point, the ESA\/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite detected its first coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Designed to observe the Sun, this satellite is designed to withstand the harshest weather conditions in space.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ESA\/NASA Solar Orbiter mission provided detailed coverage of this event. Its instruments recorded the X5 flare, detected particle emissions, and measured the magnetic signature of the coronal mass ejection.<\/span><\/p>\n

Continuing its journey toward the planet Mercury, the BepiColombo spacecraft was near the Sun-Earth alignment, a “space weather highway” that carries Earth-bound particles and coronal mass ejections. This alignment meant that this event was possibly the largest energetic particle collision with the Sun that BepiColombo had experienced since launch. The ESA\/JAXA spacecraft reported numerous timing errors, but thanks to its robust design, these issues were quickly and successfully resolved.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nObservation of the Sun in extreme ultraviolet light by the AIA instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory on November 11, courtesy of the Royal Observatory of Belgium\/SIDC ESA<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Solar storms, and especially the high-energy particles they can produce, pose a serious hazard to missions beyond Earth’s magnetic shield. These particles are difficult to protect against and can significantly increase radiation exposure, posing a potential health risk to astronauts and spacecraft systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

Several ESA and its partner spacecraft carry radiation measurement instruments developed within\/for ESA programmes to diagnose anomalies, support operational decisions, and improve performance models used in spacecraft design. These instruments also help improve our understanding of heliophysics and space weather modeling. ESA is also developing next-generation technologies to reduce the cost, mass, and power consumption of these instruments while simultaneously improving their performance.<\/span><\/p>\n

To minimize impact, the ESA and other space agencies apply the ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) principle. During severe storms, this may include measures such as postponing spacewalks, moving astronauts to protected areas if necessary, and, in extreme cases, delaying launches.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nSolar fireworks captured on camera. ESA<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

These measurements will be even more important for future lunar and space missions beyond Earth’s protective magnetic field. In this context, ESA is exploring new shielding strategies, investigating how materials, including the regolith of planetary surfaces such as the Moon, can influence the radiation environment, and studying the full range of biological effects of high-energy particles to better protect crews and systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

ESA closely monitored this powerful space weather event, collecting detailed information from all its expert service centers and disseminating key data to stakeholders. While the probability of an eruption can be predicted, the precise arrival time of the coronal mass ejection and the precise magnitude of the storm remain difficult to predict. New ESA missions aim to reduce this uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

ESA’s Vigil mission introduces a new way to observe the Sun, allowing it to observe its “side” from Lagrange point 5 (L5) to continuously analyze solar activity and monitor space weather conditions near the Sun-Earth line. Vigil is scheduled to launch in 2031. The spacecraft will detect potentially hazardous solar events before they pass into Earth’s field of view, providing early information on their characteristics and valuable time to protect spacecraft and critical ground infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nNorthern Lights near Mallorca, Spain, November 2025. ESA<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Current operational monitoring of incoming solar wind is conducted from Lagrange Point 1 (L1) and allows for solar storm impact predictions just 20 minutes before they begin. Another proposed mission, SHIELD, located more than 15 million kilometers from Earth, approximately ten times farther than L1, would be able to provide warning of such a storm approximately two and a half hours before its onset, allowing critical infrastructure operators to effectively prepare for and minimize the impact of geomagnetic storms.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to satellite data, between 2001 and 2024, Earth lost some of its reflectivity. Snow and ice are melting, and the atmosphere is changing, causing the planet to warm increasingly. NASA researchers have discovered an imbalance between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of our planet.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

It turns out that air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere have decreased thanks to environmental measures taken in Europe, the United States, and China. Fewer particles (PM2.5 and PM1.0) mean fewer clouds to reflect radiation, so reflectivity has decreased. The picture is different in the Southern Hemisphere: the fires in Australia and the eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano in 2021\u20132022 added significant amounts of aerosols to the atmosphere. This increased cloud formation and temporarily enhanced reflectivity. The study was published in the journal PNAS in 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the overall energy balance remains shifted: the south still receives more radiation, and interhemispheric circulation does not fully compensate for the difference. Scientists believed that clouds would compensate for these changes, but their contribution turned out to be limited. The study’s authors emphasize that a more accurate accounting of the planet’s reflectivity is important for adjusting climate models and forecasts.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Earth’s destruction by the Sun<\/span><\/h2>\n

For decades, astronomers have debated whether Earth’s fate is linked to that of the Sun. When the star exhausts its supply of hydrogen fuel, powering it, in about 5 billion years, it will swell to the size of a red giant, large enough to engulf Mercury and Venus\u2014and, as several studies suggest, Earth as well.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

However, new research suggests our planet has a better chance of avoiding a fiery end than previously thought. Using updated models of the interactions between aging stars and their planets, researchers have found that the gravitational forces pulling Earth toward the expanding Sun are weaker than previous models predicted. This will give the planet more time to drift outward as the dying Sun sheds its outer layers into space, potentially avoiding complete absorption.<\/span><\/p>\n

This discovery doesn’t guarantee Earth’s survival. Instead, according to the researchers, it shifts the greatest uncertainty from how strongly the expanding Sun attracts planets to a little-studied variable\u2014how much mass the star will lose in the final stages of its evolution. The study’s results were published in June 2026 in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics.<\/span><\/p>\n

“The greatest uncertainty now lies not in tidal calculations, but in how much mass the future Sun will lose,” said lead study author Mats Esselders of the Institute of Astronomy at the University of Leuven in Belgium in a statement. “Observations of giant stars similar to the Sun currently point to Earth’s survival, but we need better observations before we can be certain.”<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nA schematic representation of the Sun’s evolution through its giant phases. The image shows the Sun as it currently exists, passing through two giant phases before ending its life as a white dwarf. The study found that Mercury and Venus will be consumed by the expanding Sun, but Earth and Mars will survive, finding themselves in a wider orbit. Sizes and distances are not to scale. Institute of Astronomy, University of Leuven.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

When stars like the Sun exhaust the hydrogen in their cores and swell to the size of massive red giants, they trigger a cosmic struggle between expanding tidal forces pulling planets inward and shedding stellar mass pushing them outward, which ultimately decides whether nearby worlds are consumed or saved.<\/span><\/p>\n

This planetary opposition unfolds in two stages. As the Sun expands, gravitational tides act as a brake, slowly draining energy from Earth’s orbit and pulling the planet inward. At the same time, the dying star sheds massive amounts of gas through powerful stellar winds, eventually losing about half its mass. As the Sun becomes lighter, its gravitational pull weakens, pushing the remaining planets into a wider orbit, which, according to NASA, could double their distance from the star.<\/span><\/p>\n

“The fate of the Earth depends on the delicate balance between these two effects,” Esselders said in a statement. “If tidal interactions prevail, the Earth will be engulfed. If mass loss prevails, the Earth will move into a wider orbit.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Previous studies have reached different conclusions, primarily because they treated the competing processes differently, Esselders and his team argue. Some of these studies completely ignored tidal interactions, while others relied on simplified models developed decades ago that predicted a much stronger inward pull, the study states.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead of using older formulas, the new study uses updated calculations of tidal forces based on the changing internal structure and dynamics of aging stars, which the researchers say allows them to accurately account for both tidal friction and changing stellar winds, and then test the results against a range of possible mass-loss rates during the Sun’s final giant phase.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\nThe sun shines over Earth’s horizon as the International Space Station orbits 264 miles (425 kilometers) above the Canadian province of Quebec on December 30, 2021. NASA<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The study’s results show that even with a weaker inward gravitational pull, Mercury and Venus are unable to outrun the expanding Sun and are inevitably engulfed by it, while Earth and Mars safely pass through both phases of gigantism, resulting in our planet eventually occupying a wider orbit around the white dwarf remnant that the Sun will leave behind.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the situation is far from clear. Since astronomers still cannot accurately observe how quickly Sun-like stars lose mass in the late stages of their life, “the ultimate fate of Earth remains uncertain,” the researchers write in their paper.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given the actual rate of mass loss of the star L2 Pup\u2014a red giant located approximately 183 light-years away and used as a model for our future Sun due to its similar mass\u2014the researchers confirmed that Earth would drift outward fast enough to avoid being engulfed, which, the study notes, would tip the scales toward survival over destruction.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most scientists agree that as the Sun ages, it will steadily heat up, causing Earth’s oceans to boil and making the planet completely uninhabitable in about a billion years, long before the Sun begins to expand.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, even if humans won’t be around to witness it, tracking Earth’s ultimate survival provides important context for understanding how planetary systems evolve as their stars age\u2014a concept that the researchers say will be further refined by future observations of dying stars like the Sun.<\/span><\/p>\n

“This will allow us to conduct studies of the evolution of planetary orbits around evolved stars,” the researchers wrote in the paper, “and will help us determine the boundaries of the future evolution of the Earth-Sun system.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Study of the impact of solar radiation on the Earth’s atmosphere<\/span><\/h2>\n

A better understanding of how the Earth’s ionosphere behaves under the influence of powerful radio waves can be achieved by describing an extremely rare phenomenon, which was recorded by radiophysicists from Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod as part of a research team.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Depending on the altitude above the surface, scientists identify the following regularly occurring layers in the Earth’s ionosphere: D (during the daytime, at altitudes from 60 to 90 km), E (90\u2013120 km), and F (above 130 km), according to researchers at the Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN). The results will be published in Sensors in 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

Furthermore, at altitudes of approximately 100 km, the so-called sporadic E-layer (Es) can suddenly appear and disappear in the ionosphere. Its density is 3-10 times higher than the density of charged particles. Its thickness ranges from hundreds of meters to a kilometer in height. Horizontally, the E-layer can extend for hundreds of kilometers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Since the 1970s, physicists have been systematically conducting research into artificial disturbances of the Earth’s ionosphere caused by powerful short (wavelengths from 30 to 100 m) radio waves using specialized “heating” facilities.<\/span><\/p>\n\n

There are currently only three similar installations operating worldwide: EISCAT heating in northern Norway and HAARP in Alaska, both located in polar latitudes, as well as the SURA facility, owned by UNN, located in mid-latitudes near the industrial settlement of Vasilsursk in the Nizhny Novgorod region.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the observed phenomena is the generation of a visible-light glow at F-layer altitudes, including red (630 nm wavelength), green (557.7 nm), and blue (391.4 nm) lines. This phenomenon is sometimes called artificial aurora borealis, although its brightness is many orders of magnitude lower than natural auroras, and its study requires specialized sensitive equipment.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the experiment on August 5, 2024, during regular observations of artificial airglow at the SURA stand, which were carried out by radiophysicists from UNN together with colleagues from the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS (Irkutsk) and the Institute of Physics of Kazan Federal University, in the period from 22:30 to 23:40 at altitudes of approximately 105\u2013110 km, an exceptionally powerful and dense sporadic E-layer was observed, which completely screened (blocked) the penetration of powerful radio waves to the altitudes of the F-region.<\/span><\/p>\n

The concentration of charged particles (electrons) in it was approximately an order of magnitude higher than that in the surrounding E-layer. At this time, an extreme increase in the brightness of the artificial glow in the green line was observed\u2014approximately five to 50 times greater than the brightness of the glow arising in the F-layer, and approximately ten times greater than the brightness of the glow in the Es-layer observed in previous experiments.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, a noticeable increase in the brightness of the glow (approximately doubling) in the blue line of the spectrum was also observed. This brightness of artificial optical glow was observed for the first time in experiments, according to one of the study’s authors, Professor Saveliy Grach of the Department of Radio Wave Propagation and Radio Astronomy of the Faculty of Radiophysics at Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to the scientist, the purpose of the experiment was to study the mechanisms underlying the formation of artificial ionospheric optical glow under the influence of radio waves. The origin of energetic electrons, which cause the glow at altitudes of 250\u2013300 km during collisions with atoms and ions in the Earth’s atmosphere, is well described as the result of their acceleration by plasma waves generated by the collision. However, the cause of the extremely intense glow in the Es layer remains unclear to scientists.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe appearance of such intense Es is a unique phenomenon and appears to exist only during periods close to maximum solar activity,\u201d the professor said.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to him, the data obtained contribute to a deeper understanding of the processes occurring in the upper atmosphere and lower ionosphere during high solar activity. The study expands our understanding of the mechanisms of radio wave interaction with ionospheric plasma and the formation of artificial optical phenomena in near-Earth space.<\/span><\/p>\n

The data uncovered during the study lays the foundation for developing new methods for diagnosing the ionosphere and studying its dynamic processes under the influence of both natural and anthropogenic factors. Going forward, the scientists plan new experimental and theoretical studies of the discovered anomalous increase in optical luminosity under the influence of radio waves in the presence of an Es blocking layer. According to them, this will allow for a better understanding of the physical processes occurring in our planet’s atmosphere under the influence of solar radiation.<\/span><\/p>\n

NASA selected the mission concept to study how space weather and dynamics within Earth’s atmosphere affect the space environment and to improve the ability to predict impacts on critical technologies such as GPS and low-Earth orbit satellites, as well as on astronauts in space.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Dynamic Atmosphere-Ionosphere Explorer (DAPHNE) mission is entering Phase B of its development, which includes planning and designing the mission’s flight and operations. It will use identical twin satellites to study how changes in Earth’s lower atmosphere affect the upper atmosphere, where space weather occurs, according to NASA’s press service.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
\nAn artist’s rendering of the DAPHNE (Dynamic Atmosphere-Ionosphere Explorer) mission concept. The color scheme simulates auroras and atmospheric waves in Earth’s atmosphere. Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics\/Mary Tostanoski<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The DAPHNE mission concept, with its low-risk, high-reward nature, will provide coordinated, multi-point measurements of neutral winds, temperature, and composition in the thermosphere. The ionosphere and thermosphere are the regions where Earth’s neutral atmosphere transitions into the ionized plasma of outer space. Within this thin shell surrounding the planet, the atmosphere is in constant motion, shaped by solar activity and changes in the lower atmosphere and near-Earth space.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fundamental observations and physics insights obtained during the DAPHNE mission will enable the use of lower atmospheric energy data to improve space weather forecasting capabilities. The mission is led by Amy Merkel of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado Boulder.<\/span><\/p>\n

A mission feasibility review will be conducted in 2027, assessing progress and funding availability. If confirmed, the total estimated mission cost, excluding launch, will not exceed $250 million in fiscal year 2023 dollars, with a launch date no earlier than 2029.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DAPHNE mission was proposed as a concept study in response to the DYNAMIC (Dynamical Neutral Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling) mission solicitation. Funding and management of this mission is provided by the Solar Terrestrial Probes program at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.<\/span><\/p>\n

By studying archival observational data from NASA missions, scientists may have solved the mystery of the energy source for a type of auroral display called auroral arcs.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The answer, they claim, lies in cosmic waves. From the ground, auroras appear as green, glowing curtains of light cutting through the night sky. From space, they appear as thin green lines\u2014or arcs\u2014cutting through the atmosphere, NASA’s press service reports.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
\nIn this image taken over northwestern Canada in 2019, green aurora arcs stretch across the sky. The arc on the right is a typical aurora arc, while the brighter arc on the left transforms into a different type of aurora with bead-like features. Neil Zeller\/NASA<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Scientists know that auroras form when electrons, accelerated by electric fields in space, collide with atoms in our atmosphere, emitting light. Electric fields act as a “cosmic battery” for the auroras, but scientists weren’t sure what exactly powers this battery.<\/span><\/p>\n

Searching for clues, a team of researchers led by Sheng Tian of the University of California, Los Angeles, uncovered the results of simultaneous observations of the aurora in April 2015, conducted by NASA’s Van Allen Probes, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DSM) F19 spacecraft, and the ground-based cameras of NASA’s THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) mission. These combined observations provided multiple perspectives over a long enough period of time to reveal more information about the conditions in space that contributed to the formation of the polar arc.<\/span><\/p>\n

The results, published in the journal Nature Communications on January 13, 2026, suggest that the electric fields are activated by cosmic waves called Alfv\u00e9n waves that propagate along Earth’s magnetic field lines.<\/span><\/p>\n

Similar particle acceleration was observed by NASA’s Juno spacecraft around Jupiter. Tian’s team believes that Alfv\u00e9n waves may also power auroras on Jupiter and other planets where auroras are observed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/i> Comment on Facebook* The owner of the Meta company is recognized as extremist in Russia and is banned.<\/span><\/a>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Even “moderately intense” geomagnetic storms, disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field caused by charged particles and the Sun’s magnetic energy, can carry much more energy than previously thought, challenging scientists’ understanding of how these space weather events develop and how their strength is measured.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2337,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,993,546,40],"tags":[288,685,982],"class_list":{"0":"post-2336","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-geliobiology","8":"category-astrobiology","9":"category-earthsorbit","10":"category-kosmos","11":"tag-radiation","12":"tag-solar-storms","13":"tag-the-sun"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2336"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2336\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2339,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2336\/revisions\/2339"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planeta21vek.ru\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}