Scientists at the University of California, Riverside, have found that carbon dioxide emissions will cause tropical rains to shift north in the coming decades. This will have a profound impact on agriculture and the economy of the Earth’s equatorial belt. Eastern China has seen heavy rains that have caused significant water levels in the Yangtze and other rivers, forcing the evacuation of nearly a quarter of a million people. In 2022, lightning strikes across India killed nearly 3,000 people. In Central America, continuous rainfall has killed at least 27 people in landslides and floods over the past week.
Scientists from the University of California, Riverside, have found that carbon dioxide emissions will cause tropical rains to shift north in the coming decades. According to experts, the shift in precipitation will be due to the influence of carbon in the atmosphere on the formation of intertropical convergence zones. These are areas along or near the equator where trade winds from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres meet and rush upward to cooler layers of the atmosphere, sucking large volumes of moisture from the oceans. As the moist air cools at high altitudes, thunderclouds form, causing torrential rains. Thus, intertropical convergence zones provide about a third of the world’s precipitation.
The changes will hit tropical regions on both sides of the equator hardest, including central Africa, northern South America and the Pacific island nations. This could impact the global food market, as these areas grow coffee, cocoa, bananas, sugar cane, tea, mangoes, pineapples and produce palm oil.
The northward shift of tropical rainfall is predicted to last for about 20 years, after which warming of the southern oceans will pull the convergence zones back and hold them there for another millennium.
Heavy monsoon rains hit India on May 8, 2024, causing floods in the country’s financial capital Mumbai, while lightning in the eastern state of Bihar killed at least 10 people, government officials said.
The Mumbai City Council ordered schools and colleges to close on Monday as a precautionary measure, noting that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had warned of “heavy to very heavy rainfall”.
Hours of heavy rain left many streets in the coastal city underwater, causing several bus and train routes to be suspended.
In Bihar, 10 people were killed by lightning strikes on Sunday, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar said, urging residents to “stay indoors during storms.”
The monsoon rains that lash across South Asia from June to September bring welcome relief from the summer heat and play a key role in replenishing water supplies, but they also cause widespread death and destruction.
But the number of deadly floods and landslides has increased in recent years, and experts say climate change is making the problem worse.
Floods have also engulfed the northeastern state of Assam, where eight people have died in the past 24 hours, the region’s disaster management agency said on Sunday.
The death toll from torrential rains since mid-May has reached 66 people.
It should be noted that lightning strikes have killed nearly 3,000 people across India in 2022, according to the National Crime Bureau.
In Central America, continuous rainfall killed at least 27 people in landslides and floods in late June 2024. El Salvador bore the brunt of the storm, but Guatemala and Honduras were also hit.
Salvadoran Environment Minister Fernando Lopez said the heavy rains were caused by low pressure over the Pacific Ocean, with indirect influence from Tropical Storm Alberto, which killed four people in Mexico.
“Unfortunately, the death toll has reached 19 people, which is an extremely sad event,” said Luis Amaya, head of civil protection for El Salvador.
Among the dead were two girls whose home was buried by the landslide. Amaya said several preventive evacuations had been carried out in high-risk areas on hillsides and near rivers that had burst their banks.
In neighboring Guatemala, authorities reported seven deaths and extensive damage to roads and bridges. Honduras’ emergency commission reported one death, with 3,500 people injured and more than 200 homes damaged.
Several communities in southern Honduras, near the border with El Salvador, are cut off from the rest of the world by rising river levels.
No deaths have been reported in Nicaragua, but authorities are warning of rising rivers, flooded homes and damaged roads.
Civil protection and emergency services continue to work in an enhanced mode, evacuating the population from the most vulnerable areas and providing assistance to the victims. The authorities call on residents to be careful and to comply with all regulations in order to minimize the risk of further casualties and destruction.
East China has been hit by heavy rains that have caused the Yangtze and other rivers to rise significantly, forcing the evacuation of nearly a quarter of a million people, state media reported in late June 2024.
China has been experiencing extreme weather in recent months, from torrential rains to severe heat waves. It is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, which scientists say contribute to climate change and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
According to Xinhua News Agency, by Tuesday evening, the disaster had affected 991,000 residents of Anhui Province, with 242,000 people evacuated.
– As of 4 p.m. Tuesday, heavy rains have damaged 36 counties and districts in seven prefecture-level cities in Anhui, Xinhua News Agency reported, citing the local emergency management department.
The Yangtze, China’s longest river, has exceeded critical levels and is rising in Anhui province. The downpours have also pushed water levels above warning levels in 20 other rivers and six lakes in the province.
State television CCTV showed footage on Wednesday of the Yangtze River rising so high it almost completely covered the statue in the city of Wuhu, which usually stands 12 metres above the water.
More than 100 millimeters of rain fell at hundreds of weather stations in Anhui province from 5 p.m. Monday to the same time on Tuesday, according to Xinhua. Hexi County, near the provincial capital Hefei, recorded about 266 millimeters of rain.
The provincial meteorological department forecast further rain from Wednesday to Friday and issued warnings of possible “geological disasters” in southern areas.
Heavy rains in recent months have caused deadly damage in southern China. Last month, mountain floods killed five people in the central province of Hunan, while a landslide in the same province killed eight. Heavy rains and floods also killed 38 people in the southern province of Guangdong in June.
On June 16, heavy rains hit Pingyuan County in Guangdong Province, causing landslides and flooding. According to updated information, 38 people have died and two are missing as a result of the natural disasters caused by the heavy rains.
Since the flood season began on April 4, the cumulative rainfall in Pingyuan County has reached 1,221.6 mm, nearly double that of normal years. Local residents say the flooding is the worst in at least 40 years.
The damage is still being assessed, but preliminary statistics indicate that the disasters have affected the lives of more than 55,000 residents in Pingyuan County and rendered about 2,500 homes unusable. Direct economic losses are estimated at 5.85 billion yuan (about $822 million).
On July 8, Beijing time, rescuers managed to completely seal a 226-meter-long breach that had formed in the dam on Dongting Lake, China’s second-largest freshwater lake.
Flooding caused by heavy rains caused a dam to burst on Dongting Lake in Yueyang City, central China’s Hunan Province, on the afternoon of July 5, forcing at least 7,000 residents to evacuate.
According to the city’s Flood and Drought Control Headquarters, the dam breach repair will speed up drainage and post-disaster recovery efforts by easing pressure on the second line of defense, the next 14.3-km-long dam located about 2 km away.
In Dalnerechensk, Primorsky Krai, more than three (318%) monthly precipitation norms have fallen since the beginning of June, of which 118 mm, or almost two June norms, fell in seven days.
As RIA Novosti reports, the number of houses flooded by the flood in Dalnerechensk, Primorsky Krai, has tripled in one day – to 151, and water has also entered 231 house territories, the city district administration reports. The day before, 216 house territories were flooded in Dalnerechensk, including 53 houses.
Regional authorities report that despite pumping out water in some areas of the city, the situation in Dalnerechensk is getting worse every day: water is coming from the hills and flooding new streets.
As reported by the Krasnoarmeysky District Administration, 383 household plots were flooded in the district as of Thursday morning. There is no transport connection with the villages of Melnichnoye, Tayezhnoye, Molodyozhnoye, Sarovka, Pokrovka, Novokreschenka, Dalniy Kut, Dersu. However, the water level in the rivers there is already declining.
After the rains in the Krasnoarmeysky District of Primorye, there is still no road communication with some villages. In the Dalnerechensky urban district, houses and adjacent territories are flooded. Primorye rescuers are providing targeted assistance to residents, the press service of the regional government reports.
In the Krasnoarmeysky District, there is no access to the villages of Dalniy Kut and Dersu. Boat crossings have been organized to them. Five house territories are also flooded. In the Dalnerechensky Urban District, 68 private houses and 111 house territories are still flooded.