The shift from El Niño to La Niña has made for longer, more severe hurricane seasons. This year’s hurricane season will be stronger than average, forecasters warn. The Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons bring a host of dangerous weather, from blistering winds, torrential rains, power outages, and flash flooding. And with climate change linked to increased hurricane intensity, those impacts could continue to worsen.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1 and runs through November 30. In the eastern Pacific, hurricane season begins May 15 and ends November 30, according to the National Weather Service. However, most of these storms hit during the peak of hurricane season between August and October on both coasts, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center classifies hurricane seasons as above-normal (12 to 28 tropical storms and seven to 15 hurricanes); near-normal (10 to 15 tropical storms and four to nine hurricanes); and below-normal (four to nine tropical storms and two to four hurricanes). The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be above-average, and it has proven to be so, with 21 tropical cyclones forming this year, 20 of which have been named storms and seven of which have been named hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-normal season with 25 named storms as a result of climate change and the shift from El Niño to La Niña. In 2024, the previous season’s strong El Niño had disappeared, and forecasts had predicted the arrival of its counterpart, La Niña. The latter results in weaker trade winds, meaning less wind shear that breaks up tropical storms.
On average, the world is seeing more intense tropical cyclones (a term that covers rapidly rotating storms like hurricanes and typhoons) than in decades past. Based on an analysis of 4,000 tropical cyclones from 1979 to 2017, researchers found in 2020 that not only are these storms getting stronger because of global warming, but we’re also experiencing the strongest ones more often, Live Science reported. In another study, scientists found that hurricanes hitting Bermuda are twice as strong as they were six decades ago, they reported online March 2, 2021, in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
Global warming is leading to so-called zombie storms, or those that die out and then recharge to come back from the dead, Live Science reports. For example, in September 2020, Category 1 Hurricane Paulette hit Bermuda, strengthened to a Category 2, and then weakened and died down about 5.5 days later. That wasn’t the end of her story, however, as she regained strength and reached tropical storm strength about 300 miles (480 kilometers) from the Azores. And scientists say zombie storms like these could become more common as waters warm and give once-dead storms new life, Live Science reports.
Hurricanes are tropical cyclones. When a tropical cyclone’s sustained winds reach 39–73 mph (63–118 km/h), it is considered a tropical storm and receives a name from a list issued by the World Meteorological Organization. Once these sustained winds reach 74 to 95 mph (119 to 153 km/h), the storm becomes a Category 1 hurricane. According to the Saffir-Simpson scale, here are the sustained winds associated with Category 2–5 hurricanes: Category 2: 96 to 110 mph (154 to 177 km/h), Category 3: 111 to 129 mph (178 to 208 km/h), Category 4: 130 to 156 mph (209 to 251 km/h), Category 5: 157 mph or greater (252 km/h or greater).
According to NASA, hurricanes are the most powerful storms on Earth. At their core, hurricanes are fueled by just two ingredients: heat and water. Hurricanes form over warm waters above the equator, where air above the ocean surface absorbs heat and moisture. As the hot air rises, it leaves behind an area of lower pressure. This process repeats as air from higher pressure areas moves into lower pressure areas, heats up, and rises, in turn creating swirls in the air. Once this hot air gets high enough in the atmosphere, it cools and condenses into clouds. The now growing, swirling vortex of air and clouds grows and grows and can become a thunderstorm.
Another key factor: wind shear, or the change in wind direction with altitude in the atmosphere. Storms that form on opposite sides of the equator have different rotation orientations due to the slight tilt of the Earth’s axis, according to NASA.
However, the individual components of hurricanes do not occur by chance; they are driven by larger weather systems. The first is the El Niño/La Niña cycle. During El Niño, when ocean water around the northwest coast of South America becomes warmer than usual, Atlantic hurricanes are suppressed, while La Niña creates more favorable conditions for hurricanes. The second climate pattern is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which, as its name suggests, is a trend that lasts 25 to 40 years and is associated with warmer waters in the Atlantic and stronger African monsoons.
Once a storm reaches 38 mph (58 km/h) wind speeds, it officially becomes a tropical storm. At 74 mph (119 km/h), a storm reaches hurricane status. At this point, scientists use a scale of 1 to 5, known as the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, to classify the strength of hurricanes, with Category 1 being the least powerful hurricane and Category 5 being the most powerful. Some scientists have also proposed adding a Category 6 to account for storms that significantly exceed the highest sustained wind speeds of a Category 5 hurricane.
Category 1 – 74-95 mph. Minimal, with some roof leaks, damaged gutters, broken tree limbs, and downed trees with shallow roots.
Category 2 – 96-110 mph. Moderate, with extensive roof and siding damage; uprooted trees may block roadways; power loss possible for days to weeks.
Category 3 – 111-129 mph. Devastating damage: Gables and decks damaged, more trees uprooted, and extended power outages.
Category 4 – 130-156 mph. Catastrophic damage; roofs and exterior walls will be destroyed; trees snapped; power outage will last weeks to months. Large areas uninhabitable for weeks to months.
Category 5 – 157 mph or greater. Most frame homes will be destroyed; power will be out for weeks to months; and huge areas will remain uninhabitable for the same period
This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surges, rain-related flooding and tornadoes.
Hurricanes were originally named after a Catholic saint’s feast day. For example, Hurricane San Felipe occurred on September 13, 1876, or St. Philip’s feast day, according to the National Hurricane Center. Hurricanes that hit on the same day will be distinguished by a suffix added to the later one. For example, the storm that hit on September 13, 1928, was named Hurricane San Felipe II to distinguish it from the 1876 storm.
However, by the 1950s, naming conventions had changed, and hurricanes in the United States began to be given female names based on the international alphabet, according to the NHC. The practice of naming storms only with female names was discontinued in 1978.
Despite the seemingly unlimited possibilities, meteorologists do not have complete freedom in choosing names. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has a long list of alphabetical storm names that repeats in a six-year cycle. The organization strives for clear and simple names. Names are given in English, Spanish, Dutch, and French to accommodate the many languages spoken by people potentially affected by hurricanes.
Using short, distinctive names in written and spoken communication is faster and less error-prone than older, more cumbersome methods of identifying latitude and longitude. These advantages are particularly important when sharing detailed information about storms between hundreds of widely dispersed stations, coastal bases and ships at sea, the WMO said.
If a storm was so destructive that reusing its name would be insensitive, the group gets together and agrees to retire the name from the list. For example, people don’t have to worry about facing the wrath of Hurricanes Katrina, Ike, Hattie, or Opal again because those names have been retired, according to the NHC.
A storm and hurricane plan begins with determining if it is safe to stay home during a storm or if you need to go to an evacuation zone. If you do evacuate, you will need a specific route to take as many roads may be closed.
Family members often have difficulty calling each other during hurricanes, so establishing a pre-established meeting place and protocol can be helpful. Sometimes local cell phone lines are overloaded during a storm, so consider texting.
During a storm, pets should be kept on a leash or in a carrier, and their emergency supplies should include a list of their vaccinations and a photo in case they get lost, according to the Humane Society for the United States. It’s also important to find someone to care for them if a hotel or shelter doesn’t accept pets. They should also be wearing a collar with a contact person’s information during an emergency in case they get lost with you, according to the HSUS.
Since storms often cause damage when trees fall on property, homeowners can reduce the risk of damage by trimming trees or removing damaged trees and branches. It’s also a good idea to make sure gutters are secure and free of debris. It’s also important to reinforce the roof, doors, and windows, including garage doors.
Electric generators can also be an important tool if the power goes out for long periods of time. The generator must be kept outside as it produces dangerous levels of carbon monoxide.
People who take safety very seriously may even consider building a “safe room” – a fortified room that can withstand the strong winds of a tornado or hurricane.
People living in hurricane-prone areas should also have a supply of emergency supplies, ideally placed in several places around the home: extra water; a three-day supply of nonperishable food; a battery-powered or hand-crank radio; a flashlight with extra batteries; a first aid kit; a whistle to call for help; a dust mask; wet wipes, trash cans, and zip ties for sanitation; a wrench or pliers for unscrewing burst pipes; maps; a can opener for food; cell phone chargers
The first Atlantic tropical storm of 2024, Alberto, struck on June 19, with the broad but short-lived storm affecting parts of Louisiana, Texas, and Mexico.
Hurricane Beryl June 28–July 11, made landfall in Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines as a Category 5 hurricane and made landfall in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on July 2 before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane. From there, it moved through the Gulf of Mexico before making final landfall in Matagorda, Texas. Dozens of people died. Hurricane Debbie August 3–14, a slow-moving Category 1 hurricane, dropped massive amounts of rainfall on Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. About 10 people died. Hurricane Ernesto – August 12–20, caused flooding in Puerto Rico before strengthening to a Category 2 storm and making landfall in Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Francine – September 9–currently moving about 60 miles (100 km) off the coast of Louisiana. It became a Category 1 on September 11.
Hurricane Francine, the sixth named storm of the season, reached Category 2 status on September 11 and made landfall in the US state of Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported. It happened in the southern part of the state, in Terrebonne Parish, about 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City. State authorities issued evacuation orders along the entire Louisiana coast. Schools and government offices are closed.
After making landfall, the hurricane quickly weakened to a tropical storm and continues to move north-northwest, and will move into Mississippi today, weakening to a tropical depression by evening. It will disappear from weather maps by Friday evening, near the borders of Tennessee, Missouri, and Arkansas.
Local media noted that this is the first time a hurricane has made landfall in Louisiana since 2021.
Deadly floods hit northern Africa on September 10. The death toll from the floods in Morocco has risen to 18, including three foreign nationals, while four others are missing, the Moroccan news agency MAP reported. The search for missing people continues in the provinces of Tata, Tiznit and Er-Rachidia, the country’s Interior Ministry said.
The floods were caused by very strong thunderstorms, accompanied by hail and gusts of wind, which hit several areas in different parts of the country, the General Directorate of Meteorology of Morocco warned on Saturday. According to the agency, the rains that fell in the last two days account for about half of the amount of precipitation that falls in the region throughout the year.
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, heavy rains and floods led to the complete or partial collapse of more than 80 residential buildings and eight technical facilities; power and water supply lines and telephone lines were also damaged.
Super Typhoon Yagi has killed 39 people and injured more than 300 in the Philippines, Vietnam, China and Hong Kong since it struck Southeast Asia on Sept. 1. At least 39 people are still missing, according to regional disaster management agencies.
The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Management and Reduction Council said 20 people were killed, 18 injured and 26 missing as a result of the typhoon. The agency estimates the total damage caused by the disaster at 1.36 billion Philippine pesos ($27.57 million).
On September 7, the Chinese news agency CNS cited the Hainan Province Emergency Management Authority as saying four people had died and 95 were injured in the super typhoon. The authority did not release information on the number of missing people. According to Xinhua, the economic damage caused by Yagi amounted to more than 59 billion yuan ($8.4 billion). The South China Morning Post also reported nine casualties in Hong Kong.
Vietnam’s National Disaster Response and Search and Rescue Committee reported at least 15 deaths and 187 injuries as a result of Yagi’s strikes in the country’s northern provinces. As of September 8, 13 people were still missing. The capital Hanoi, the cities of Cam Pha, Mong Cai, Hai Phong, Haol Long and the nearby northern provinces of Thai Binh, Hoa Binh and Hung Yen were hit the hardest. More than 121,000 hectares of cropland were destroyed.
Typhoon Yagi (Japanese for “goat” or Chinese for “Capricorn”) is the eleventh named storm and the first major typhoon of the annual typhoon season. It peaked on September 5 as a Category 5 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale (super typhoon equivalent), with one-minute sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). Yagi is the second most powerful typhoon this year, with the first being Atlantic Hurricane Beryl, which raged in late June and early July and also reached Category 5 status.
Typhoon Yagi is the strongest storm to hit Asia this year. At least 59 people were killed and hundreds injured in landslides and floods, making it the strongest to hit Vietnam in 30 years.
Tropical Storm Yagi gained strength on the night of September 2 near the Philippines. Two days later, it turned into a typhoon and began approaching the southern coast of China. On September 6, it hit the southern Chinese province of Hainan, and then Vietnam. The maximum wind speed was 234 kilometers per hour. An evacuation was announced, and there are also fatalities and injuries in China. As a result, the super typhoon turned out to be the strongest storm to hit Hainan in a decade. Due to the bad weather, a friendly match between the Russian and Thai national teams, which was supposed to take place on September 7 in Hanoi, has been postponed indefinitely.
A flood in Phu Tho province caused a road bridge to collapse across a river. At the time of the emergency, 12 cars were crossing the bridge, with 13 people inside, 10 of whom are missing. In Cao Bang province, a landslide covered a bus carrying about 20 people.