According to the Federal Agency for Fisheries, the Caspian Sea’s water level has dropped by nearly 2.4 meters since the mid-1990s. The coastline and aquatic bioresources are experiencing colossal external impacts. As a result, populations of entire species, including the Caspian seal, could disappear. The Caspian Sea is the largest enclosed body of water on Earth. Over 130 rivers flow into it, the largest of which are the Volga, Ural, Terek, Sulak, and Samur. Five countries are located on the Caspian coastline: Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Iran. In 2023, a local emergency was declared in the Aktau region of Kazakhstan due to the rapid shallowing of the Caspian Sea, caused by a decrease in river inflow. This created problems for the local port and fishermen.
Russia and Azerbaijan have created a bilateral working group on the shallowing of the Caspian Sea. It includes representatives from relevant ministries and agencies, as well as research institutes from both countries. According to the press service of the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, the decision to establish the group was made by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in August of this year. Its composition was determined in early October.
On October 2, 2024, the working group was formed: Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation Sergey Anoprienko and Deputy Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Azerbaijan Rauf Hajiyev were appointed co-chairs, the press service of the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources reported.
Experts will develop an action plan to study the causes of Caspian Sea level changes, prepare short-term and long-term forecasts, and develop adaptation strategies. Joint scientific research, monitoring of water level fluctuations, and other activities will be conducted in the near future.
The group included representatives from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, the Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Federal Agency for Water Resources of Russia, the State Agency for Water Resources of Azerbaijan, and relevant departments and research institutes from both countries, the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources explained.
Photo: Rosrybolovstvo
The Caspian Sea level could drop by another 1 meter in the next 10 years, Sergei Shipulin, deputy head of the Volga-Caspian branch of the Russian State Research Center of Oceanology and Oceanography (VNIRO), told TASS.
“Caspian Sea level forecasts should be approached with extreme caution. If the sea’s water balance dynamics remain unchanged, then at the current rate of sea level decline, we expect a sea level drop of at least 1 meter over the next decade,” Shipulin noted.
According to him, the Caspian Sea’s water level has risen and fallen repeatedly throughout its history. Over the past 200 years, the fluctuation range has been approximately 4 meters, and over the past 500 years, approximately 7 meters. Sea levels declined until 1977, rose until the mid-1990s, and then, until today, the Caspian Sea has been declining again.
Shipulin noted that the shallowing of the sea is associated with changes in the water balance of the reservoir and changes in river runoff, including fluctuations in precipitation and evaporation rates within the sea and in the basins of the rivers flowing into it. At the same time, the falling Caspian Sea level and land shifts are causing significant changes in the sea’s ecosystem and human economic activity. Specifically, the foraging habitat of commercial fish in the northern Caspian Sea, in front of the Volga Delta, is shrinking.
“Our ability to influence sea level changes is very limited. Rather, we need to focus on, on the one hand, conducting research, building models, and obtaining more reliable long-term sea level forecasts. On the other hand, we need to develop measures to prevent the threats and risks arising from fluctuations in the Caspian Sea,” Shipulin concluded.
The shallowing of the Caspian Sea due to climate change cannot be stopped. Regions must adapt to the new reality through technical solutions, including dredging and pipeline extensions. This opinion was expressed to TASS by Vladimir Ushivtsev, a leading researcher at the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SSC RAS) and a PhD in biology.
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“The shallowing of the Caspian Sea is a problem of global proportions. It can’t simply be solved. We simply need to adapt to it, find technical solutions, extend pipelines, deepen canals, and so on. But stopping the shallowing of the Caspian Sea is impossible. Redirecting northern rivers back into the Caspian region is, well, a big, stupid idea. In my opinion, we need to forecast what will happen next, taking into account all the climate changes currently occurring, and then adapt to the forecasts that our analysis reveals. Let’s say the forecast shows that the Caspian Sea will drop by half a meter in the next year. This means we need to implement technical measures to address certain social issues,” Ushivtsev said.
An Aktau videographer showed how the Caspian Sea has receded from its shores over the past 10 years. rus.azattyq-ruhy.kz
According to the scientist, the diversion of northern rivers toward the Caspian Sea could lead to water shortages in other regions and also require significant financial outlays.
In late August 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a scientific analysis to prevent the shallowing of the Caspian Sea. He raised this issue at a meeting with Astrakhan Region Governor Igor Babushkin. He also noted that he had discussed this issue with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
“I was recently in Azerbaijan. Our colleague, the President of Azerbaijan, noted that the Caspian Sea is shrinking,” Putin said, noting that Ilham Aliyev had spoken very warmly about cooperation with the Astrakhan Region. “I have a request for you—I will, of course, instruct the government to do this—but please prepare and send me a corresponding request to conduct a scientific analysis of the events unfolding in the Volga and Caspian Sea regions, so as to understand what needs to be done in the near future to help the Caspian Sea,” Putin instructed.
Babushkin assured that the region has the necessary understanding and scientific research. “We will engage our scientific community and practitioners, and I will prepare such a report,” he promised. “Prepare it as quickly as possible so that both your work and the work of the Russian government are based on my instructions,” Putin concluded.
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