When the current solar cycle began in late 2019, experts from the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), which includes scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), predicted that solar maximum would likely begin sometime in 2025 and would be comparable to the previous, weaker cycle. However, as the current cycle progressed, it quickly became clear that this was not the case, and that solar maximum would occur earlier and be much more intense than initially anticipated.
A new NASA study suggests that solar activity will remain high or increase further in the coming decades, contradicting previous assumptions that the Sun’s activity is declining and scientists “don’t fully understand” why.
NASA scientists warn that the Sun may be “awakening” after a brief period of relative inactivity, contradicting previous assumptions about our star. If true, this could mean decades of potentially dangerous space weather await us.
The Sun follows a roughly 11-year solar activity cycle, beginning with a long period of calm known as solar minimum and building to an explosive peak known as solar maximum—when our star frequently erupts into powerful solar storms. This cycle is known as the “sunspot cycle” because the number of dark spots on the Sun’s surface waxes and wanes depending on solar activity. The sunspot cycle, in turn, is governed by a longer 22-year cycle known as the Hale cycle—during which the Sun’s magnetic field completely reverses direction and then reverses.
The Sun often spews solar storms during solar maximum. This “dark” coronal mass ejection began on September 7, 2025, and triggered a minor geomagnetic storm on Earth. NASA/SDO
But beyond the solar activity cycles and the Hale cycle, the Sun also experiences long-term fluctuations in solar activity, which can last for decades and are much more difficult to predict or explain. Examples include the periods from 1645 to 1715, known as the Maunder Minimum, and from 1790 to 1830, known as the Dalton Minimum, when solar activity was generally significantly lower over successive solar activity cycles.
In the early 2000s, the trend toward declining solar activity led some scientists to speculate that we might be entering a new “deep solar minimum.” This theory gained currency after the last solar maximum, between 2013 and 2014, which was much weaker than previous cycles. However, the current solar activity cycle, which has reached its peak, has completely refuted this theory.
In a new study published September 8, 2025, in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, researchers analyzed multiple solar activity indicators, including solar wind, magnetic field strength, and sunspot number, and found that they have been trending upward since about 2008 and may increase further in future cycles, suggesting that the deep solar minimum theory is finally outdated.
The maximum number of visible sunspots during the previous solar maximum was the lowest in nearly 100 years. NOAA/SWPC
“All signs pointed to the Sun entering a prolonged period of low activity,” said lead study author Jamie Jasinski, a plasma physicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, in a statement. “So it was surprising to see this trend reversed. The Sun is gradually awakening.”
We are currently approaching the end of the last solar maximum, which officially began in early 2024, and it is not going as expected.
When the current solar activity cycle began in late 2019, experts from the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), which includes scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), predicted that solar maximum would likely begin sometime in 2025 and would be comparable to the previous, weaker cycle.
However, as the current cycle progressed, it quickly became clear that this was not the case, and that solar maximum would occur earlier and be much more intense than initially anticipated. SWPC scientists later acknowledged their error, publishing their first-ever updated forecast, which arrived just in time for solar maximum.
Since then, the Sun’s sunspot count has reached its highest level in more than 20 years, and it has emitted a record number of powerful X-class flares—the most powerful type of explosion the Sun is capable of.
The Sun’s roughly 11-year cycle gets its name from sunspots, which appear and disappear depending on solar activity. This time-lapse image shows all the sunspots that appeared in August 2024, when their number peaked. SDO/ Şenol Şanlı/Uğur İkızler
During the current maximum, Earth also experienced several major geomagnetic storms, or disturbances in the planet’s magnetic field. The most notable was the “extreme” event in May 2024, which produced some of the brightest auroras in centuries and caused over $500 million in damage.
A new study warns that what we’ve observed in the past few years will likely become the “status quo” over the next few decades. This could be especially problematic as humanity has become much more reliant on technologies vulnerable to space weather, such as power grids, GPS-controlled equipment, and satellites in low-Earth orbit, which can be knocked out of the sky by solar storms.
It’s currently unclear why the Sun has experienced a surge in solar activity over the past few decades or what might be driving its current resurgence: “Long-term trends are much less predictable, and we don’t fully understand them yet,” Jasinski said.
Another study, conducted earlier in 2025, suggested that the recent surge in activity may be part of a lesser-known and poorly understood 100-year solar cycle known as the Gleissberg Centennial Cycle. However, the newest study makes no mention of this at all.
A new NASA study suggests that solar activity will remain high for decades to come, potentially leading to more dangerous space weather events. NASA’s Goddard Space Research Center
Russia reports that solar activity will reach its minimum in 2029, and the risk of major flares remains high until then, Sergei Bogachev, head of the Solar Astronomy and Heliophysical Instrumentation Laboratory at the Space Plasma Physics Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Space Research Institute, told TASS.
“All risks will be finally removed only around 2029, when the next minimum of activity occurs,” he said.
Bogachev also noted that even after the solar cycle’s peak, the risk of major flares remains. “The record-breaking flares of the 21st century occurred in 2003, and the peak was in 2001. In the previous cycle, the largest flares occurred in 2017, and the peak was in 2014,” he said.
Typically, solar flare activity rises and falls with a cycle of approximately 11 years. Solar flare cycle 25 began in 2019 and will last until 2030.
Another space weather physicist, Tamita Skov, describes one potential late-cycle flare as the Sun’s “last gasp”—a dramatic finale that could trigger powerful geomagnetic storms and spectacular auroras on Earth. The aurora borealis could intensify over the next two years as the Sun enters a period of violent decline, culminating in its “last gasp.”
Solar activity follows an 11-year rhythm, peaking at a period known as solar maximum, which includes numerous sunspots and flares, and then waning into a more subdued solar minimum. But Earth doesn’t experience this decline as a quiet decline.
This occurs because key factors of geomagnetic activity change throughout the solar cycle. During solar maximum, phenomena such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) predominate. After solar maximum, long-lived coronal holes—colder, darker regions in the Sun’s atmosphere that spew high-speed solar wind—become more common.
“We actually have more geomagnetic storms during the decline phase,” Skov explained. “It’s possible that actual solar eruption activity slows down a bit after the peak of solar maximum, but since coronal holes are still forming—and there are still quite a few eruptions—if you combine these two factors, the net effect is higher activity on Earth.”
Scott McIntosh, a solar scientist and vice president of space weather forecasting company Lynker Space, describes this period as an overlap between the “bright side” of the cycle, dominated by eruptions, and its “dark side,” dominated by coronal holes. In short, the number of coronal holes increases for several years after the maximum, creating a very complex space environment.
Northern Lights captured in Mexico. Martin Lemus/Getty Images
This overlap means that Earth’s magnetic field can be affected by multiple sources simultaneously, causing storms that may not be as intense but often last longer. Skov notes that these protracted storms may not be as intense as a single, powerful coronal mass ejection, but they do last longer.
Beyond the general turbulence, Skov notes another turn of events late in the cycle, which she calls the sun’s “last gasp.”
“Almost all cycles, if not every cycle… they all have these last gasps during the decline phase,” Skov said. “Typically, these last gasps occur about two to three years before solar minimum. So, we should see something within the next year and a half to two years.”
These final bursts of activity are typically caused by one or two very complex sunspot groups that appear late in the cycle. If such a region forms and faces Earth, remaining active for several solar rotations, it can trigger powerful, repeated eruptions in Earth’s direction. The chances of another large G5 sunspot occurring in these final stages are quite high. Everything depends on whether this sunspot appears in Earth’s field of view and whether it remains as dangerous.
G5 is the most extreme level on NOAA’s geomagnetic storm scale, capable of causing auroras in deep mid-latitudes. The Gannon storm of May 2024, which lit up the sky as far south as Mexico, was one such G5 event.
These geomagnetic storms can be a real headache for satellites, navigation systems, and communications technologies. Prolonged radiation and geomagnetic activity can interfere with GPS networks, disrupt radio signals, and damage spacecraft. The anomalies that occur on spacecraft occur because they are exposed to high levels of radioactivity, and this concentration of particles seems to be persistent.
Objective opinion: Ancient tree rings show that Earth experienced a “catastrophic” solar storm about 2,687 years ago.
If this colossal solar storm were to hit our technologically advanced world, the consequences would be catastrophic.
Modern technology ensures that much goes unnoticed. A fleet of satellites constantly monitors space weather, and scientists analyze the data and study its impact on Earth. If a solar storm of unprecedented intensity occurred thousands of years ago, how would we know about it?
Ancient trees serve as time capsules, silently recording Earth’s history. A research team from the University of Arizona, led by Irina Panyushkina and Timothy Jull, is unlocking these arboreal secrets by meticulously analyzing tree rings to detect evidence of colossal solar storms known as Miyake events. These cosmic weather events are so rare that only six such events have been recorded in the past 14,500 years. The most recent occurred around 775-775 CE. But the exact timing of the event, which occurred around 660 BC, has long remained a mystery to researchers, until now. The study’s results will be published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment in November 2024.
An ancient larch tree trunk was exposed on the muddy banks of the Ob River in Siberia. Samples of these ancient trees allowed researchers to search for radiocarbon dating peaks indicating extreme solar storms in the distant past. Irina Panyushkina
Miyake events are an extreme type of solar activity first identified in 2012 by Japanese physicist Fusa Miyake.
Miyake, a co-author on Panyushkina’s team, published a study revealing the telltale signs of these events: a sharp increase in the amount of radioactive carbon isotopes, particularly carbon-14, found in tree rings, the statement said.
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Carbon-14 is a naturally occurring radioactive form of carbon formed in the atmosphere when cosmic rays interact with nitrogen. This carbon-14 eventually reacts with oxygen to form carbon dioxide. This carbon dioxide is then absorbed by trees through photosynthesis.
“In a few months, carbon-14 will move from the stratosphere to the lower atmosphere, where it will be absorbed by trees and become part of their wood as they grow,” Panyushkina said in a statement.
Panyushkina and her team from the University of Arizona carefully dissected individual growth rings of ancient wood samples collected from dead trees buried on riverbanks, as well as from lumber recovered during archaeological excavations. The wood’s main component, cellulose, was then burned to determine its radiocarbon content.
When a radiocarbon dating peak is detected, researchers compare tree ring data with peaks of other isotopes, such as beryllium-10, which is found in ice cores extracted from glaciers and ice sheets—another remarkable natural time capsule. Like carbon-14, beryllium-10 is formed in the atmosphere by solar particle bombardment; precipitation, such as rain or snow, captures this isotope and encases it in the ice core.
If this colossal solar storm were to hit our technologically advanced world, the consequences would be catastrophic. Science Photo Library/Getty Images
“If ice cores from the North and South Poles show a jump in the beryllium-10 isotope in a given year, corresponding to an increase in radiocarbon in tree rings, we know a solar storm has occurred,” Panyushkina said in a statement.
Data from both tree rings and ice analysis have pinpointed the date of the long-mysterious Miyake solar storm, which now falls between 664 and 663 BC.
Another independent study of new climate models, published by a group of Australian scientists in November 2025, shows that extreme heatwaves will intensify for many centuries to come—even if the world achieves net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. The study emphasizes that delays in the transition to carbon neutrality, even by a few years, create a long-term, virtually irreversible increase in heat risks.
The study, published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate, is based on extensive supercomputer simulations conducted by specialists from the ARC Centre of Excellence for the 21st Century Weather and CSIRO. The scientists modeled how heat waves will change over the next thousand years for various target dates—from 2030 to 2060. For each scenario, the researchers analyzed how the intensity, duration, and frequency of extreme heat events change with a five-year delay in reaching the target.
According to Dr. Andrew King of the University of Melbourne, the results were unambiguous: the later humanity reaches net-zero emissions, the more frequent extreme heat events, which until recently were considered rare, become. He clarified that this is especially noticeable in countries located closer to the equator. The study suggests that if carbon neutrality is achieved after 2050, heat waves that break historical records could occur annually or even more frequently.
The modeling also shows that even after global emissions are fixed at zero, extreme heat does not return to pre-industrial levels. Over the full 1,000-year simulation period, most regions of the world maintain elevated heatwave levels. In some cases—especially with late transitions to zero emissions—heat continues to intensify even after emissions stabilize.
The study’s authors also note specific processes capable of sustaining long-term heatwave growth. These include the ongoing warming of the Southern Ocean, which, according to the model, could intensify hot periods in adjacent regions for centuries to come.
The study’s lead author, Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University, emphasized that the findings challenge the widespread notion that the climate will inevitably “improve” after reaching net-zero emissions. She stated that the results should be considered an important benchmark for long-term climate adaptation planning. She stated that a “rapid and sustained” transition to carbon neutrality remains critical, and achieving global net zero by 2040 will help reduce the intensity of future heatwaves.
Scientists note that adapting to rising heat will require a massive overhaul of approaches to infrastructure, housing, and healthcare systems. Dr. King emphasized that an early transition to net-zero emissions could avoid some of the worst-case scenarios, including increased mortality, strain on energy systems, and increased pressure on utilities. However, he added, adaptation measures “will be a matter of centuries, not decades.”
The study emphasizes that extreme heat is becoming a key risk factor for both hot climates and temperate regions, where heat waves are increasing faster than previously expected. The authors emphasize that the choice of trajectory—whether an accelerated or slower transition to zero emissions—will determine the climate conditions facing future generations in the coming decades.
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