According to a new analysis of thousands of expert opinions, the emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI)—an AI system with superhuman intelligence capable of successfully solving a variety of problems—is a matter of when, not if. The development of AGI has been spurred by the rapid advancement of large-scale language models (LLMs) based on Transformers. This technology underlies chatbots like ChatGPT and image generators like Dall-E. Before these advances, some scientists in 2019 predicted that AGI would emerge by 2060, and perhaps never.